10 Most Overrated MLB Prospects of the Last Decade (And Where They Are Now)

Every summer, fans and front offices alike get swept up in the hype of the next “can’t miss” prospect. But baseball history is littered with top ranked players who never quite delivered. Whether due to injuries, poor development, or just a massive case of being overhyped, these players became cautionary tales. Some are still clawing their way through the minors. Others flamed out entirely. All of them prove one thing prospect rankings are not prophecy.

In this post, we take a deep dive into 10 of the most overrated MLB prospects of the last 10 years and examine what went wrong. Buckle up some of these might hurt.

1. Jahmai Jones – 2B/OF, Los Angeles Angels (2015)

MLB Pipeline Peak Rank: No. 43 in 2018

Jones was once considered a five tool player with elite athleticism and a high baseball IQ. He had speed, raw power, and scouts raved about his leadership. So what happened? He stalled out in the upper minors, never hitting consistently enough to crack the Angels’ loaded outfield or lock down second base. He made brief cameos with Baltimore but has mostly bounced around since. His defense was never as polished as advertised, and the bat didn’t catch up. At this point, he’s become a journeyman not the future All Star many once predicted.

2. Hunter Harvey – RHP, Baltimore Orioles (2013)

MLB Pipeline Peak Rank: No. 20 in 2014

Harvey’s curveball was elite. His fastball was electric. His injury history? Brutal. The son of former closer Bryan Harvey, he was expected to anchor the Orioles’ rotation for a decade. Instead, he suffered nearly every pitching injury imaginable from elbow strains to Tommy John surgery to oblique issues. He’s still pitching in the bigs, now out of the bullpen, but he’s a reminder that no matter how high the ceiling, durability matters.

3. Kevin Maitan – SS/3B, Atlanta Braves/Los Angeles Angels (2016)

MLB Pipeline Peak Rank: No. 32 in 2017

Maitan was compared to Miguel Cabrera when he signed as an international free agent. Let that sink in. The Braves paid handsomely for him before he was declared a free agent again due to MLB sanctions. The Angels scooped him up, and things fell apart from there. His conditioning declined, the bat never developed, and his defensive profile slid from shortstop to third base to, eventually, nowhere. He has become one of the most disappointing international signings in recent memory.

4. Lucas Giolito – RHP, Washington Nationals/Chicago White Sox (2012)

MLB Pipeline Peak Rank: No. 3 in 2016

Yes, Giolito had some solid seasons, including a breakout in 2019. But considering he was once the top pitching prospect in baseball, his career has been underwhelming. His mechanics have constantly shifted, his velocity has fluctuated, and his command never quite settled. Some still argue he could reinvent himself late in his career, but he never became the generational ace many believed he would be. For a No. 3 overall prospect, expectations were much higher.

5. Byron Buxton – OF, Minnesota Twins (2012)

MLB Pipeline Peak Rank: No. 1 in 2014 and 2015

This one stings. When healthy, Buxton is breathtaking elite defense, power, and speed. But that “when” is the problem. He’s played more than 100 games in a season just once. The injuries have been constant, and while his highlights are ESPN worthy, his WAR totals are shockingly low for a former top overall prospect. He may be one of the most gifted athletes in baseball history to never reach his potential.

6. Dom Smith – 1B, New York Mets (2013)

MLB Pipeline Peak Rank: No. 71 in 2016

Smith was supposed to be the Mets’ first baseman of the future a contact hitter with pop and strong defense. He never really clicked. For years, he struggled to find a consistent swing. He had a brief 2020 breakout but failed to follow it up. Defensive limitations and inconsistent offense turned him into a depth piece instead of a cornerstone. He is still in the league, but now viewed as a bench bat more than anything else.

7. Mark Appel – RHP, Houston Astros (2013)

MLB Pipeline Peak Rank: No. 17 in 2013

Appel is the only No. 1 overall pick in MLB history to never make it to the majors until he finally debuted in 2022, almost a decade later, with the Phillies. His stuff never developed to match his college dominance. He struggled with mechanics, lost confidence, and retired before unretiring. His story is now one of perseverance, but let’s be honest: the hype was never matched by production.

8. Austin Hedges – C, San Diego Padres (2011)

MLB Pipeline Peak Rank: No. 27 in 2014

Hedges was supposed to be the next elite two way catcher. He turned out to be elite at framing. But the bat never came around. At all. A career batting average under .200 and an OPS that often dips into pitcher territory has made him an all glove, no hit guy. He’s stuck around because of defense, but it’s safe to say the hype did not age well.

9. Yusniel Diaz – OF, Los Angeles Dodgers/Baltimore Orioles (2015)

MLB Pipeline Peak Rank: No. 37 in 2018

Diaz was the centerpiece in the deal that sent Manny Machado to Los Angeles. That trade now looks terrible for the Orioles. Diaz never developed beyond AAA. Injuries, lack of power, and inconsistency doomed him. He was DFA’d, outrighted, and now floats in minor league obscurity. A major bust in a major trade.

10. Jarred Kelenic – OF, New York Mets/Seattle Mariners (2018)

MLB Pipeline Peak Rank: No. 4 in 2021

Kelenic’s debut was hyped as the arrival of a superstar. Instead, it was a whimper. He has the tools power, speed, and a cannon arm but his plate approach has been a mess. Long slumps, high strikeouts, and visible frustration plagued his early years. Though he showed signs of improvement in 2023, many wonder if he’ll ever live up to the hype that came with being the Mariners’ most anticipated prospect since Griffey.

Honorable Mentions:

Brendan Rodgers – Rockies
Jake Bauers – Rays/Guardians
Justus Sheffield – Yankees/Mariners
Jose De Leon – Dodgers/Rays

Final Thoughts:

Prospect rankings are exciting and often wrong. Injuries, pressure, development environments, and mental approach can all drastically shift a career path. These 10 names are reminders that the gap between “top prospect” and “MLB contributor” is huge. The good news? Baseball always has new names rising.

So next time your team drafts a teenager and hypes him up as the future of the franchise, take a deep breath. And maybe keep the receipts for five years down the line.

Want to make your baseball nights more fun even when your favorite prospect is flailing? Grab Watch Baseball, Get Drunk from fallingwhalegames.com and turn strikeouts into sips.